Until now, I have refrained from dabbling in political discussions about Egypt. Mainly because watching this so-called revolution unfold before my eyes elicits intense emotions. However, a year later and with elections currently underway, I don’t know how much longer I can keep silent. I mean, I did not get a degree in Middle Eastern politics for nothing.
When Egyptians first took to the streets to overthrow Egyptian President (and strongman) Hosni Mubarak on Jan. 25th, 2011, I could not help being swept away by all the revolutionary fervor. Indeed, since moving here three years ago, I have observed that Egypt is ripe for revolution. Life for the average Egyptian has become intolerable. Poverty is rampant, food prices are unreasonably high, government corruption and inefficiency know no limits, and unofficial unemployment rates are well over 30 percent. I predicted that violence would erupt before the upcoming presidential elections in November, for which Mubarak intended to nominate his son. Due to the jolt of inspiration Egypt received from Tunisia, however, it happened earlier than I expected.
Now that Mubarak is gone and the honeymoon phase is over, certain unpleasant realities are beginning to surface. All the different ideological factions that joined forces to make this coup d’etat happen have now split apart at the seams. There are secularists, socialists, nationalists, and (my favorite) Islamists, and they are all battling for the hearts and minds of the nation. Though they all speak in broad terms of democracy, social justice, human rights, and freedom, each faction defines these concepts in radically different ways. And each envisions a radically different Egypt.
Which is why I am of two minds with respect to this revolution. The American in me is beaming that the rhetoric of democracy has finally made it to the Middle East, and that people are willing to die for it. I get all fuzzy inside watching everyone from young adults to 80-year-old veiled women line up at the ballot box. My inner American, however, is sobered by my inner Egyptian slash realist, which questions the wisdom of implementing democracy in a place like Egypt. For several good reasons… the most important being that it will likely open the door to Islamist rule. If not sooner, then later. And the horrors of Islamist rule are all too well documented.
Most of us balk at that the thought of an Islamist Egypt. Many refuse to even consider that this could actually happen. My question is, why not? Just because it might not be in Egypt’s best interest? It was not in Iran’s interest either. Just because we find it too painful a thought? Our feelings don’t negate the reality on the ground. And that reality is that the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists have found fertile ground in the Egyptian populace, which has been growing more conservative by the day.
Not to mention that the Brotherhood is potent, influential, organized, well-funded, and serious. Though it has been denied political power since its inception, the Brotherhood has largely and historically compensated for this by providing creative grass roots solutions to social problems in impoverished areas. It has created an extensive network of education, health, and job training programs. It has provided private gender-segregated transportation to mitigate the harassment of women in public. The Brotherhood runs more than 22 hospitals, has schools in every Egyptian governorate, and has set up numerous care centers for widows and orphans. It even allows women to give birth in their hospitals for a fraction of what it costs in other clinics. By stepping in where the government has failed, Islamism has gained a credibility long lost on the ‘secular’ Arab regimes of the last sixty years.
But even without the Brotherhood providing all sorts of social services, it would still have more credibility than secularism. This is because in the collective Egyptian political psyche, secularism has been blamed for the corruption that defined the Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak eras (though in reality they were never really as secular as they pretended to be). This perceived failure of secularism has thus emboldened Islamists to dismantle it. The Islamist hijacking of the “kiss and make up” agenda at a rally in Tahrir Square last July is a case in point. In what was supposed to be a show of national unity by Egyptians, tens of thousands of Islamists swarmed into Tahrir Square. They sidelined liberals, secularists, and Christians as they took over the pulpits and chanted “Islamic law is above the constitution,” and “Islamic, Islamic, neither secular nor liberal.” So while Islamism may eventually prove to not be in Egypt’s best interest, it has not yet had a chance to discredit itself.
The other thing we need to consider is Egypt’s demographic landscape. Egyptians are, for the most part, religious. They take their prophets and holy books quite seriously. Roughly 90 percent of Egyptians are Sunni Muslims. And though many are what I like to call lapsed Muslims, the overwhelming majority perceives itself to be religious (or aspires to be). Religion is therefore still the main frame of reference here. It informs everything from how Egyptians think, act, perceive the world, and even understand history. This is not absolute, but it is much more the case than in the more secularized half of the world. Given Egypt’s religious hard wiring, it makes sense that the Brotherhood’s ideas resonate with a lot of Egyptians. For example, the Brotherhood wants the new constitution to declare Egypt an Islamic state. For the majority of Egyptians who already understand themselves to be devout Muslims, this is more an affirmation of reality than an innovation in Egyptian politics… and definitely nothing to be scared of. It is the liberals who do not want Egypt to be an Islamic state that the average Egyptian looks upon with suspicion.
In addition to being religious, Egypt is largely un(der)educated. Official Egyptian statistics calculate the literacy rate to be 70 percent. Unofficial sources claim it is 50 percent. Yet more than 50 million Egyptians are registered to vote! Not that I believe all 50 million of them will vote—a large segment of the population is still politically apathetic. But voter turnout did hit record levels these past two days, mostly on account of Egyptians’ newfound political enthusiasm. It is also because the government is threatening those contemplating avoiding the polls with a 500 EGP fine and jail time. Forced voting. How’s that for democracy?
For these reasons, it is difficult for me to imagine that enough Egyptians will make informed decisions at the ballot. No one anywhere in the world does, but it is a little worse here because there are more than 6,000 candidates and 400 parties from which to choose! No one knows who these candidates are. And no one knows who they are voting for. This is a real problem because people will vote for the only two parties they have ever heard of—the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist party. Even if they do not necessarily agree with their platforms. It is purely an issue of recognition.
This is exactly what happened with at least two Egyptians I know. Two members of my band, to be exact. They are musicians. Artists. The people most likely to suffer under Islamist rule. They admitted to voting for the Muslim Brotherhood party (the Freedom and Justice Party) simply because they did not know the other candidates or parties. Additionally, these musicians said they voted to avoid being fined or jailed. I have not conducted any scientific polls, and I know that two people do not represent a nation, however, I have a sinking feeling that many Egyptians are voting in the same way and for the same reasons.
And let’s not forget the illiterate. For those who cannot read or write, voting is no more than a choice between picture symbols that represent each of the candidates: bananas, tractors, pens, forks, and coffee grinders, to name a few.
Already, reports of election fraud have surfaced, and the Muslim Brotherhood seems to be responsible for most of it. At several polling stations, Brothers stood around ‘helping’ people vote, telling them which polling stations they were registered at as well as ‘reminding’ them who to vote for. They also allegedly paid voters to vote for them.
None of this surprises me. We already saw the precursor to this in March. With their hyper-religious rhetoric and fear mongering, the Brotherhood managed to win the hearts and minds of many Egyptians in the constitutional referendum. (There were reports that the Brotherhood intimidated voters into voting “Yes” by telling them a “No” vote would land them in hell.) Much to the Brotherhood’s advantage, 77 percent of voters voted “Yes” for a series of reforms that would allow parliamentary elections to take place quickly. This was what the Brotherhood wanted—quick elections benefit them because they are currently better positioned to win the election than their secular counterparts.
These are some of the reasons why democracy in Egypt is likely to result in Islamists coming to power. And this is why I am pessimistic about the merits of democracy in Egypt. In addition to a minimum standard of education, democracy requires a healthy dose of secularism in order to function properly. Separation of church (in this case, mosque) and state. Democracy also requires citizens to consider each other equals. This is a long shot when the majority of the population subscribes to a religion that sees people as believers and nonbelievers. This is a recipe for treating certain demographics like second-class citizens. Last month’s sectarian clashes prove this.
Though I definitely believe a revolution was in order, Egypt is not ready for democracy. Democracy is not simply casting a ballot. It is not raging in Tahrir Square every Friday. Democracy is a way of life that presupposes a relatively educated population, separation of religion and state, tolerance for minorities, and patience! Democracies are known for their slow decision-making mechanisms. This is because there isn’t one man in control calling all the shots.
More importantly, it would be beneficial to understand that democracy is not the only legitimate form of government. We don’t all have to be the US or the UK (not that they get democracy completely right). There is something to be said for a benevolent dictatorship, which is the form of government most suitable for Egypt at this point. It could be something slightly along the lines of Nasser’s revolution in 1952. So, rather than an entire people rising up to overthrow the rot that was Mubarak, it would have been better if a well-intentioned, educated corps of liberal Egyptians ousted Mubarak and set up a mildly authoritarian state…one which would gradually pave the way for democracy by building an effective education system, increasing literacy, making religion a private issue, discrediting religious extremism, and creating a manufacturing-based economy. Only then should we even begin to think about democratizing Egypt. Any time before that, and Egypt could very well end up looking like Iran.
I do apologize if I sound overly-pessimistic; I by no means seek to be the prophetess of doom. It’s just that I have a tendency to see politics as a choice between greater and lesser evils. I realize that there are extremely well-educated and intelligent liberal Egyptians out there capable of running the world, not just Egypt. Yet they are disadvantaged in many ways, and severely outnumbered by the un(der)educated religious masses. It is the masses I’m worried about—those most susceptible to being bamboozled into voting for religious zealots.
At the end of the day, we will not be able to turn back the hands of time and do it all over again. All we can do now is hope for the best. Hope for a miracle. Because the future of Egypt is hinging on these elections. As I anxiously await the election results, I hope that history proves me wrong.